Over the past seven years, Alcis has been tracking the changing nature of Afghanistan’s agriculture and rural economies, with a focus on opium poppy cultivation. Each year, using satellite imagery, we have mapped the entire country at a field level to understand where and what changes are taking place. This year’s analysis has revealed a landscape under immense strain, one defined by drought, declining livelihoods, and a quiet but noticeable return of opium poppy.  The number

Although the Taliban took power four years ago, and poppy cultivation has remained at historically low levels since 2023, declining opium prices, widespread poppy cultivation in Badakhshan, and the rise of opium production in the Taliban’s heartlands in the southwest indicate that the Taliban drugs ban is at risk. Regional factors are also undermining the poppy ban. Increased poppy cultivation in Pakistan is putting downward pressure on prices, undercutting the value of opium

Winter crop estimates for six provinces in Afghanistan reveal two concerning results: A second year of reductions in the area of agriculture to the lowest levels of cultivation seen over the last seven years in four of these six provinces, with year-on-year reductions in wheat cultivation in five of these six provinces. An increase in opium poppy cultivation in all five provinces of the southwest, but still at very low levels compared to previous years . In contrast, Nangaha

While many argue that a shift into synthetic opioids downstream in Europe is a function of a shortage of opium in Afghanistan caused by the Taliban drugs ban, opium prices in Afghanistan have been falling since their peak in December 2023: a function of substantial inventories in southwest Afghanistan, continued widespread cultivation in Badakhshan, improved processing techniques, and the dramatic rise in poppy cultivation in Pakistan and Iran in 2025.

As the next poppy season approaches, the Taliban possibly find themselves tackling both poppy farmers and drug traders at the same time.

Sowing the Seeds of Division in Badakhshan? A second consecutive year of a poppy ban in Afghanistan, but at what price?

It is misleading to compare the effects of the current drug ban in Afghanistan with the previous Taliban prohibition in 2001.

The 2023/24 poppy season is already upon us, and most indicators including market prices suggest that the Taliban regime is going to press for a ban for an unprecedented second consecutive year. Even more unprecedented is the growing pressure the Taliban appear to be applying on the drugs trade just as the planting season begins. Were the Taliban to continue its ban on cultivation, as well as engage in a robust effort against the trade – particularly if they move against inve

High-resolution satellite imagery analysis reveals that poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2023 is down 85% compared to 2022.

The Policy Dilemma in Afghanistan: There are no good options in response to the Taliban’s Opium Ban.

With the Taliban having exceeded expectations and reduced poppy cultivation to levels not seen since 2001, there is now a real need to understand the potential effects of the drugs ban on Afghanistan, the region, and further downstream. For many of us old enough to have seen a particular style of music, or clothes, come round a second or third time, the term “unprecedented” is often overused. Those who are from Afghanistan, or worked there for a sustained period, are likely t

Will the Taliban's efforts to control drugs succeed?

“We inform all farmers…that, poppy cultivation isn’t allowed after today. If anyone cultivates poppy, their land will be eradicated & the person arrested by the government. In addition: use, trade, transport, production, import and export of all types of drugs…isn’t allowed” This is like travelling back more than 20 years without any of the benefits of youth. As with the Taliban ban before, it seems to be more about geopolitics and leveraging development assistance -perhaps m

The cost of the economic crisis in Afghanistan will be borne far beyond the country’s borders. The Afghan population is suffering from economic crisis and drought, with rural people especially vulnerable. They lack functioning markets for legal cash crops, public sector employment has collapsed and the private sector, once buoyed by international spending, is imploding. Many are trying to escape, leaving the country in large numbers via Zaranj in the South West of the countr