2025 crop estimates for six provinces in Afghanistan
- richardbrittan
- Jul 1
- 3 min read
Winter crop estimates for six provinces in Afghanistan reveal two concerning results:
A second year of reductions in the area of agriculture to the lowest levels of cultivation seen over the last seven years in four of these six provinces, with year-on-year reductions in wheat cultivation in five of these six provinces.
An increase in opium poppy cultivation in all five provinces of the southwest, but still at very low levels compared to previous years. In contrast, Nangahar Province continues to see negligible poppy cultivation levels, as it did last year. These and other indicators (as set out in this blog: https://www.alcis.org/post/opiate-supplies-continue-despite-the-taliban-drugs-ban) suggest that the poppy ban is under strain, and there is a risk of a return to more widespread cultivation across Afghanistan for the 2026 harvest.
A reducing area of agriculture
Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, and Nimroz provinces all saw significant reductions in the area of active agriculture during this winter cycle. Figure 1 below shows the areas in hectares of all active agriculture for six provinces in the winter cycle that were planted in late 2024 and harvested in spring this year. Figure 2 shows the change in total area of agriculture between 2024 and 2025. Agriculture in Farah was down 15,544 hectares or 22% and Helmand down 14,404 hectares or 8% in 2025. Indeed, all four of these provinces saw reductions last year from the previous year. With the exception of Farah’s cultivation in 2019, all of these provinces have recorded their lowest levels of agriculture in seven years. Much of these reductions can be attributed to the return of drought conditions to Afghanistan. The increase in Uruzgan this year is understood to be due to the recovery of land that had been flooded in April 2024, as illustrated in Figure 3 below. Nangahar’s cultivation levels are similar to last year.
Figure 1. Total hectares of agriculture over the winter cycles of the last seven years.
Figure 2. Change in total hectares of agriculture over the winter cycle between 2024 and 2025.
Concerning reductions in wheat cultivation
Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, Nangahar and Nimroz all saw reductions in the area of wheat cultivation this year. Figure 4 below shows the areas in hectares of wheat cultivation for six provinces in the winter cycle that were planted in late 2024 and harvested in spring this year. Figure 5 shows the change in total area of wheat cultivation between 2024 and 2025. Levels of wheat cultivation in Kandahar province are of greatest concern, with a 19,439 hectares, or 35% reduction from last year, to its lowest levels seen in seven years. Reductions in Helmand and Farah provinces are also a concern, where drought conditions will likely reduce wheat yields from these crops.
Figure 4. Total hectares of wheat cultivation over the last seven years.
Figure 5. Change in total hectares of wheat cultivation between 2024 and 2025.
Limited increases in opium poppy cultivation
In the years before the Taliban ban in 2022, these six provinces contained more than 80% of the country’s total poppy production. Figure 6 below shows the dramatic reductions in poppy cultivation in these provinces in recent years. Cultivation in all of the provinces in the southwest of the country increased this year, some significantly, but all remaining at very low levels compared to previous years. The change in opium poppy cultivation between 2024 and 2025 is shown in Figure 7, and an illustration of some of this change in Kandahar province is shown in Figure 8. In contrast, Nangahar Province continues to see negligible poppy cultivation levels, as it did last year.
Small poppy plots observed in Nangahar during a ban usually function as “seed beds". They serve two purposes: first, to test whether authorities respond, and second, to supply seeds for larger crops in future years.
Combined, these and other indicators suggest that the poppy ban is under strain, and there is a risk of a return to more widespread cultivation across Afghanistan for the 2026 harvest. More details can be found here: https://www.alcis.org/post/opiate-supplies-continue-despite-the-taliban-drugs-ban.
Figure 6. Total hectares of opium poppy cultivation over the last seven years.
Figure 7. Change in total hectares of opium poppy cultivation between 2024 and 2025.
About this work
Alcis is currently generating estimates of areas of cultivation for Afghanistan’s recent winter cropping cycle. Given the volume of multi-resolution, multi-dated satellite imagery that is processed through sophisticated machine learning models, the results are being generated province by province. Alcis has now completed the analysis of six provinces and results of further provinces will be released in batches as the analysis is progresses.
Comments