Afghanistan’s Fragile Fields: A Growth in Poppy in the midst of Drought and Livelihood Decline

Over the past seven years, Alcis has been tracking the changing nature of Afghanistan’s agriculture and rural economies, with a focus on opium poppy cultivation. Each year, using satellite imagery, we have mapped the entire country at a field level to understand where and what changes are taking place. This year’s analysis has revealed a landscape under immense strain, one defined by drought, declining livelihoods, and a quiet but noticeable return of opium poppy. 

The numbers tell a stark story: despite the Taliban’s ongoing ban, poppy cultivation has increased by 74% this year, rising from 7,382 hectares in 2024 to 12,818 hectares.  At the same time, wheat production has also dropped by 10% and, over the last two years, the overall area of active agricultural land for all crops has reduced by 26%.  

What lies behind these shifting patterns reflects a deeper crisis that extends beyond just poppy fields: another widespread drought, falling agricultural incomes, and the forced return of hundreds of thousands of Afghan migrants from Iran paints a picture of a rural economy on the brink. 

Poppy’s Return 

Afghanistan’s 2025 agricultural season has been shaped by a quiet but notable shift: opium poppy cultivation is rising again, despite the Taliban’s ongoing ban. Our satellite-derived estimates show a 74% increase compared to 2024, with cultivation expanding from 7,382 to 12,818 hectares. 

Figure 1: Opium cultivation in Afghanistan.

While the total area remains a fraction of the 211,000 hectares recorded in 2022 before the ban, this is a significant change in the dynamic and acceptance of the ban. Our early readout of the key southwestern provinces indicated cultivation was on the rise here with Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, Ghor, and Farah all seeing increases. These 5 provinces accounted for a total of 5,300 hectares of cultivation this year, nearly 40% of the national total. As the map below shows, this also represents a significant shift in the concentrations of poppy cultivation, back towards the provinces that have previously been heartlands of the crop up to 2022. 

Figure 2: The distribution of poppy, following the Taliban’s enforcement of the ban on poppy cultivation.

In contrast, Badakhshan, which had emerged as a hotspot for poppy cultivation under the ban, saw only a modest rise (136 Ha). However, this likely underrepresents what farmers attempted to grow; here we see an outcome shaped more by weather than policy. In an effort to avoid eradication activity, many farmers shifted their poppy cultivation away from the more visible and well irrigated valleys, further out onto rainfed plots. The failure of spring rains did the work of the counter narcotics forces and many of these fields did not reach maturity due to the drought.   

Drought’s Devastating Grip 

The defining feature of 2025’s agricultural year has been drought on a national scale. Unlike the harsh drought in 2021, which was largely confined to the northwest, this year’s dry conditions have spread across almost every province. In an already climate-stressed country, the failure of early-season rainfall to arrive in many areas has left soils parched and crops stunted. 

Figure 3: The average vegetation condition used to indicate the scale of drought in 2025 in Afghanistan.

High-resolution satellite imagery clearly shows the extent of the crisis: fields that would typically be a vibrant green in late spring were now showing up as shades brown. This year’s drought comes on the back of drought conditions last year and a severe drought in 2021. As a result, the total area of land producing crops has dropped by 26% compared to 2023 levels and is even less than the area cultivated in the 2021 drought. 

Figure 4: Satellite imagery evidence of drought impacted Yaftal-e Sufla, Badakhshan.

The satellite evidence, reinforced by on-the-ground reports, presents a picture of widespread agricultural distress. It is not just the water supply that is drying up, the capacity of farmers to adapt and survive in these conditions is also shrinking fast. 

Declines in Wheat and Other Crops 

This year the total area under cultivation for all crop types has declined across the country with some provinces showing a significant reduction in overall cultivation. Herat has lost over 21,000 hectares of agriculture, Farah 15,000 and Helmand 14,000. Nationally, the picture shows an overall decrease from 1.4 M hectares in 2023 down to 1.04M hectares this year, a 26% decrease. This contraction reflects both drought conditions and the economic disincentives of growing low-value crops. 

Figure 5: Past and present cultivation, broken down by crop type, in hectares.

Wheat remains the dominant spring crop across Afghanistan, especially in provinces previously reliant on poppy. In Helmand, Farah, Uruzgan, and Nimroz, wheat occupies over 90% of cultivated land. However, this shift has not translated into economic stability. Wheat is a subsistence crop, not a cash crop, and many farmers, especially the land-poor, cannot meet household needs through wheat alone. Those farmers and labourers who once relied on the opium economy have had their cash income stripped away by the ban. 

Figure 6: Cultivation in Afghanistan in 2025 per province, broken down by crop type, in hectares.

With food prices rising, incomes falling, and job opportunities scarce, many rural families are trapped in a cycle of debt and dependence. The recent intensification of Iran’s policy towards Afghan migrants is a double blow to this already stressed and stretched situation. The forced repatriation of thousands of Afghans, previously living and working over the border, coupled with the loss of income that they generated there and sent home has increased the mouths to feed while reducing the means to do it. 

A Convergence of Crises 

The reappearance of poppy, the decline in wheat productivity, and the deepening drought are not separate stories - they are different faces of the same crisis. The forced return of up to one million Afghan migrants from Iran has further compounded the pressure. 

For the Taliban, this is an acute dilemma. The opium ban remains central to their domestic and international narrative, yet as hardship deepens, enforcing it will become harder. For many rural households, poppy represents not defiance but survival, the only crop that can offer liquidity in a landscape of scarcity.